COVID-19 2nd April 2020

Today I'll just let the stats speak for themselves.

The UK media today seems to be in a 'hysteria' about the lack of testing.  A few points worth considering:

I do not believe that testing is the 'silver bullet' that the media seem to be trying to make it.

1/ The time for testing has passed - we 'should' have been testing before the lockdown to identify those infected and contact trace all those they have been in contact with and isolate all those infected INSTEAD of locking down the whole country - but that ship has well and truly sailed.

2/ The key argument is to test NHS staff who are self-isolating owing to a member of their household who may be infected.  If there is someone infected in their household then they would need to self-solate for 14 days and then the NHS member may be tested and then if not positive they can return to work.

3/ There is absolutely no point testing everyone as otherwise we would need to test everyone everyday that hasn't tested positive, as just because they didn't test positive today doesn't mean they won't test positive another day.

4/ The anti-body test that shows whether you have already had the virus a/ is not ready yet and b/ requires someone to have been infected at least 28 days ago - so may not be particularly useful unless this pandemic runs for months.

5/ The real time for testing is in a couple of weeks when hopefully the effect of lockdown reduces new cases.  Then we need to do what we should have done in point 1 so that only those infected are isolated and not the whole population and we can gradually get back to normal by a/ anti-gen testing and contact tracing and isolating those infected and b/ anti-body testing and allowing those infected and recovered to carry on as normal.

I believe that by the middle of next week (17/18 days after lockdown) we should start to see new cases subside (as is happening in Italy).  The real risk once cases reduce is that the lockdown is removed and a new batch of infections start and we go through another cycle.  China locked down for a full 2 months so we should expect the same and then be very cautious afterwards.

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Latest cases/deaths versus previous day

Country	New Cases 1 Apr	New Cases 31 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 1 Apr	Deaths 31 Mar	Death Increase
IT	4,782	4,053	729	727	837	-110
ES	8,192	7,967	225	923	748	175
DE	6,173	4,923	1,250	156	130	26
FR	4,861	7,578	-2,717	509	499	10
UK	4,324	3,009	1,315	563	381	182
US	26,473	24,742	1,731	1,049	897	152

Latest actuals versus previous day

Daily	01-Apr				31 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,782	110,574	13,155	11.9%	105,792	12,428	11.7%
ES	8,192	104,118	9,387	9.0%	95,923	8,464	8.8%
DE	6,173	77,981	931	1.2%	71,808	775	1.1%
FR	4,861	56,989	4,032	7.1%	52,128	3,523	6.8%
UK	4,324	29,474	2,352	8.0%	25,150	1,789	7.1%
US	26,473	215,003	5,102	2.4%	188,530	4,053	2.1%

Latest actuals versus 1 Week ago

Weekly	01-Apr				25 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,782	110,574	13,155	11.9%	74,386	7,503	10.1%
ES	8,192	104,118	9,387	9.0%	49,515	3647	7.4%
DE	6,173	77,981	931	1.2%	37,323	206	0.6%
FR	4,861	56,989	4,032	7.1%	25,233	1331	5.3%
UK	4,324	29,474	2,352	8.0%	9,529	463	4.9%
US	26,473	215,003	5,102	2.4%	68,211	1027	1.5%

Latest actuals versus 1 month ago

Monthly	01-Apr				1 Mar (-1 Month)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,782	110,574	13,155	11.9%	1,701	41	2.4%
ES	8,192	104,118	9,387	9.0%	84	0	0.0%
DE	6,173	77,981	931	1.2%	130	0	0.0%
FR	4,861	56,989	4,032	7.1%	130	2	1.5%
UK	4,324	29,474	2,352	8.0%	36	0	0.0%
US	26,473	215,003	5,102	2.4%	75	1	1.3%

Daily v Weekly increase factors cases/deaths

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	104.5%	101.3%	148.6%	117.9%
ES	108.5%	102.2%	210.3%	122.4%
DE	108.6%	110.6%	208.9%	216.3%
FR	109.3%	104.7%	225.9%	134.1%
UK	117.2%	112.2%	309.3%	164.2%
US	114.0%	110.4%	315.2%	157.6%