COVID-19 30th April 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	2,086	72.15%	333	89.5%	72.02%	27.98%	Inc.
ES	4,771	176.31%	453	150.5%	84.56%	15.44%	Inc.
DE	1,627	140.99%	153	81.4%	94.90%	5.10%	Inc.
FR	509	19.29%	427	116.3%	66.69%	33.31%	Inc.
UK	4,076	102.00%	4,419	754.1%	1.30%	98.70%	Reduce
US	28,049	110.39%	2,390	96.8%	70.51%	29.49%	Reduce

Commentary

US - news cases increased by 2,640 (110.39%), deaths reduced by 79 (96.8%), active cases continue to increase to 855,127.

ES - new cases increased 2,065 (176.31%), deaths increased by 152 (150.50%), active cases reduced by 4,708 (-20.39 from peak 23 Apr (100,106)

IT - new cases reduce by 808 (72.15%), deaths reduce by 39 (89.52%), active cases continue to reduce slowly to 104,657 and are now 3.3% less than peak 108,257 20 Apr.

FR - new cases reduce by 2,129, deaths increase by 60 (116.35%), active cases reduce to 94,105 (1.32%) from high 95,365 28 Apr

DE - new cases increased by 473 (140.99%), deaths reduced by 35 (81.38%), active cases reduced to 34,672 and are now less than half the peak of 72,862 on 6 Apr.

UK - new cases increased by 80, deaths increased by 795, active cases cannot be calculated correctly as recovered cases are not being updated and have stayed at 344 for several weeks.

NOTE UK is now including non-hospital deaths (i.e. care homes and community), therefore the total deaths increased from 21,678 to 26,097 - and increase of 3,833 which includes 795 new hospital deaths.  UK is now approx. 1,500 deaths behind Italy and has the worst death rate of all countries at 15.8%, however the death rate is calculated as percentage of deaths from total cases, so whilst non-hospital deaths have been included, have they also been added to total cases?  I doubt it, so figure is distorted but if I add 3,000 non hospital deaths to total cases it only reduces death rate by 0.3% to 15.5%.

UK Testing from DHSCgovuk

Latest data as of 5pm 28 Apr 2020

A total of 632,974 people have now been tested

On 28 Apr 33,455 people tested with 52,429 tests - that's up from around 45,000 on 27th Apr. with 2 more days reporting for April I wonder if we 'miraculously' reach the 100,000 goal?

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	203,591	104,657	98,934	71,252	27,682	72.02%	27.98%
ES	236,899	79,695	157,204	132,929	24,275	84.56%	15.44%
DE	161,539	34,672	126,867	120,400	6,467	94.90%	5.10%
FR	166,420	94,105	72,315	48,228	24,087	66.69%	33.31%
UK	165,221	138,780	26,441	344	26,097	1.30%	98.70%
US	1,064,194	855,127	209,067	147,411	61,656	70.51%	29.49%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 29 Apr	New Cases 28 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 29 Apr	Deaths 28 Apr	Death Increase
IT	2,086	2,891	-805	333	372	-39
ES	4,771	2,706	2,065	453	301	152
DE	1,627	1,154	473	153	188	-35
FR	509	2,638	-2,129	427	367	60
UK	4,076	3,996	80	4,419	586	3,833
US	28,049	25,409	2,640	2,390	2,469	-79

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	29-Apr				28-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,086	203,591	27,682	13.6%	201,505	27,349	13.6%
ES	4,771	236,899	24,275	10.2%	232,128	23,822	10.3%
DE	1,627	161,539	6,467	4.0%	159,912	6,314	3.9%
FR	509	166,420	24,087	14.5%	165,911	23,660	14.3%
UK	4,076	165,221	26,097	15.8%	161,145	21,678	13.5%
US	28,049	1,064,194	61,656	5.8%	1,035,765	59,266	5.7%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	29-Apr				22-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,086	203,591	27,682	13.6%	187,327	25,085	13.4%
ES	4,771	236,899	24,275	10.2%	208,389	21,717	10.4%
DE	1,627	161,539	6,467	4.0%	150,648	5,315	3.5%
FR	509	166,420	24,087	14.5%	155,944	21,340	13.7%
UK	4,076	165,221	26,097	15.8%	133,495	21,060	15.8%
US	28,049	1,064,194	61,656	5.8%	845,385	47,894	5.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

NOTE The UK has adjusted death figures (retrospectively), therefore the weekly increase of death rate is no longer accurate. i.e. the previous death figure was 18,100 for 22 Apr which has been adjusted to 21,060 - using previous figures the weekly death rate would be 116.5% or alternatively an increase from a death rate of total cases of 13.6% one week ago to 15.8%.

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	101.0%	100.2%	108.7%	101.5%
ES	102.1%	99.8%	113.7%	98.3%
DE	101.0%	101.4%	107.2%	113.5%
FR	100.3%	101.5%	106.7%	105.8%
UK	102.5%	117.4%	123.8%	100.1%
US	102.7%	101.3%	125.9%	102.3%