COVID-19 20th April 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	3,047	-12.72%	433	-11.3%	66.54%	33.46%	Increasing
ES	4,258	+19.04%	410	-37.8%	79.09%	20.91%	Increasing
DE	2,018	-13.28%	104	-78.8%	94.99%	5.01%	Increasing
FR	1,101	-71.21%	395	-62.5%	64.97%	35.03%	Reducing
UK	5,850	+5.88%	596	-49.0%	2.10%	97.90%	Reducing
US	25,844	-11.06%	1,561	-19.2%	63.70%	36.30%	Increasing

Commentary

All countries had fewer deaths than yesterday.

US - Lowest new cases since 5 Apr (25,400)

ES - has 2nd highest recovery rate after Germany at 79.09% and their active cases began to flatten but have turned upwards in the last few days with an increase in new cases reported.

IT - on day 42 of lockdown still continues to have 3,000+ new cases daily.

FR - lowest new cases since 17 Mar and lowest deaths since 29 Mar.

DE - shows greatest signs of controlling virus with active cases reducing from peak of 72,865  6 Apr to 53,100 (a reduction of 27.1% in 13 days) and recovery rate of 94.99% and lowest no. of deaths.

UK - lowest no. of deaths since 6 Apr, yet 2nd highest no. of new cases (5,850 v 5,903 5 Apr) almost 4 weeks (26 days) after lockdown.

The concerning trend is that UK looks like it now may be a day ahead of the IT trajectory as it took Italy 4 days to increase from 100,000 to 120,000 cases and UK has reached it in 3 days.

IT  30 Mar 101,739 - 3 Apr 119,827

UK 16 Apr 103,093 - 19 Apr 120,067

The next figure to watch then is 150,000 which took Italy 7/8 days to reach from 120,000.  If UK rates continue at current rate of 5,000+ a day then the 150,000 figure will be reached within 6 days.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day Recovery Rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	178,972	108,257	70,715	47,055	23,660	66.54%	33.46%
ES	198,674	100,864	97,810	77,357	20,453	79.09%	20.91%
DE	145,742	53,100	92,642	88,000	4,642	94.99%	5.01%
FR	152,894	96,598	56,296	36,578	19,718	64.97%	35.03%
UK	120,067	103,663	16,404	344	16,060	2.10%	97.90%
US	764,636	652,874	111,762	71,187	40,575	63.70%	36.30%

Latest v previous day increase/deacrease

Country	New Cases 19 Apr	New Cases 18 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 19 Apr	Deaths 18 Apr	Death Increase
IT	3,047	3,491	-444	433	482	-49
ES	4,258	3,577	681	410	565	-155
DE	2,018	2,327	-309	104	186	-82
FR	1,101	3,824	-2,723	395	642	-247
UK	5,850	5,525	325	596	888	-292
US	25,844	29,057	-3,213	1,561	1,860	-299

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	19-Apr				18-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,047	178,972	23,660	13.2%	175,929	23,227	13.2%
ES	4,258	198,674	20,453	10.3%	194,416	20,043	10.3%
DE	2,018	145,742	4,642	3.2%	143,724	4,538	3.2%
FR	1,101	152,894	19,718	12.9%	151,793	19,323	12.7%
UK	5,850	120,067	16,060	13.4%	114,217	15,464	13.5%
US	25,844	764,636	40,575	5.3%	735,792	39,014	5.3%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	19-Apr				12-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,047	178,972	23,660	13.2%	156,363	19,899	12.7%
ES	4,258	198,674	20,453	10.3%	166,831	17,209	10.3%
DE	2,018	145,742	4,642	3.2%	127,854	3,022	2.4%
FR	1,101	152,894	19,718	12.9%	120,633	14,393	11.9%
UK	5,850	120,067	16,060	13.4%	84,279	10,612	12.6%
US	25,844	764,636	40,575	5.3%	560,300	22,105	3.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	101.7%	100.1%	114.5%	103.9%
ES	102.2%	99.9%	119.1%	99.8%
DE	101.4%	100.9%	114.0%	134.8%
FR	100.7%	101.3%	126.7%	108.1%
UK	105.1%	98.8%	142.5%	106.2%
US	103.9%	100.1%	136.5%	134.5%