COVID-19 14th April 2020

Summary

Today I have added a summary of an interesting graph published by Worldometers which shows the percentage rates of recovery versus death of closed cases. i.e. does not include active cases so these are real figures of all cases that have concluded in either death or full recovery.

US new cases reduce for 3rd day and 2nd day figures below 30,000.  Death rate remains around 1,500 (1,535).

Recovery v Death - no figures published but derived as 61% v 39% (see below)

Spain new cases reduce for 3rd day and are now well below half the 2nd peak on 1 Apr of 8,195 at 3,268. Deaths are also reducing from 961 at peak to 547.  Active case curve is now flattening and total cases shows signs of beginning to flatten.

Recovery v Death 78.47% v 21.53% recovery rate increasing

Italy had the 2nd lowest no of new cases since peak 21 Mar (6,557) of 3,153 (7 Apr 3,039). Their graphs don't look as promising as Spain's and don't show real signs of flattening as yet.

Recovery v Death 63.39% v 36.61% recovery rate increasing

France again is unpredictable as new cases rise by 1,251 after 2 days of decline

Recovery v Death 64.94% v 35.06% i.e. recovery rate reducing

Germany  had lowest no of new cases since 17 Mar (2,095) of 2,218 and their active cases are now 10,000 lower than the peak on 6 Apr. 

Recovery v Death 95.27% v 4.73% recovery rate increasing

UK new cases reduced by almost 1,000 (946) and lowest deaths for 7 days.

Recovery v Death - no figures published. derived 2.95% v 97.05% (see below)

UK Recovery Rate v Death Rate

The UK is the only country in the entire world (on Worldometers) NOT reporting recovery rate.  This made me suspicious so I've investigated.  It 'may' be because we are too early in the cycle to accurately report as cases have not yet run their full course.  

However, if you take total cases 88,621 minus active cases 76,948 then you must deduce that the difference is the number of cases concluded which is 11,673. If you then subtract the number of reported deaths (11,329) then that leaves ONLY 344 cases that have fully recovered.  

Can this be accurate? ... as that means the real death rate is 97% and recovery rate only 3%.  You have to assume (and hope!) that a large portion of the active cases have actually recovered but have not been reported as such for whatever reason - is this due to lack of testing? Incensed by this I have contacted several media organisations to ask the question of the government.

If I apply the same calculation to US who do not have a graph but have declared a figure for recovered cases of 36,948.

586,941 (total cases)  - 526,353 (active cases) = 60,588 concluded cases

60,588 concluded cases - 23,640 deaths = 36,948 recovered

36,948/60,588 = 61%

23,640/60,588 = 39%

To confirm my calculation I have applied it to the the figures for Spain

170,099 (total cases) - 87,616 (active cases) = 82,483 concluded cases

82,483 concluded cases - 17,756 (deaths) = 64,727 recovered

17,756/82,483 = 21.53%

64,727/82,483 = 78.47%

which matches exactly the figures reported so I am confident that the calculation is accurate.

UK Death Rates

There has been a lot of discussion in the media over the last few days regarding the high death rate in UK.  Also,  the fact that the figures reported only include those that died in hospital and not those elsewhere e.g. at home or in nursing homes etc.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has just published figures for the week ending 3rd Apr (11 days ago). (NB a new report is due to be published 16 Apr) At this point the UK had reported 3,605 COVID-19 deaths (on Worldometers) in hospitals.  According to ONS data (Section 7 Deaths registered by place of occurrence) for COVID-19 deaths:

Hospital deaths 3,716

Care Home: 217

Hospice: 33

Home: 136

Other communal establishments: 3

Elsewhere: 17

That results in 406 (approx. 10%) unreported COVID-19 deaths outside hospital.  If, therefore, we use the current death rate of reported cases (12.8%) then that would equate to potentially an additional 3,172 unreported cases based on these figures (i.e. 402 deaths (12.8%) from 3,172 cases). 

NOTE If I use the lower death rate prevailing on 3 Apr of 9.4% then then the number of potentially unreported cases actually increases from 3,172 to 4,320 (i.e. 406 / 9.4%).

If we project the calculation onto current figures then 10% of 10,616 deaths = 1,062 additional deaths and 8,296 unreported cases.

I accept that the projections above are conjecture (as we don't know for a fact that all cases were not reported or were not contracted from a reported case) and in fact the number of unreported COVID-19 cases is actually likely to be much bigger and we will never know the true figure without wider testing. Also, it has been reported (by a whistleblower) that doctors are not always recording death due to COVID-19 and may just record death due to influenza or pneumonia or some other cause as if they haven't already tested positive then presumably they will not 'waste' a test on a dead person.

Public Health England Dashboard

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 13 Apr	New Cases 12 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 13 Apr	Deaths 12 Apr	Death Increase
IT	3,153	4,092	-939	566	431	135
ES	3,268	3,804	-536	547	603	-56
DE	2,281	2,402	-121	172	151	21
FR	4,188	2,937	1,251	574	561	13
UK	4,342	5,288	-946	713	741	-28
US	26,241	27,421	-1,180	1,536	1,527	9

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	13-Apr				12-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,153	159,516	20,465	12.8%	156,363	19,899	12.7%
ES	3,268	170,099	17,756	10.4%	166,831	17,209	10.3%
DE	2,281	130,072	3,194	2.5%	127,854	3,022	2.4%
FR	4,188	136,779	14,967	10.9%	132,591	14,393	10.9%
UK	4,342	88,621	11,329	12.8%	84,279	10,616	12.6%
US	26,241	586,941	23,640	4.0%	560,300	22,104	3.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	13-Apr				06-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,153	159,516	20,465	12.8%	132,547	16,523	12.5%
ES	3,268	170,099	17,756	10.4%	136,675	13,341	9.8%
DE	2,281	130,072	3,194	2.5%	103,375	1,810	1.8%
FR	4,188	136,779	14,967	10.9%	98,010	8,911	9.1%
UK	4,342	88,621	11,329	12.8%	51,608	5,373	10.4%
US	26,241	586,941	23,640	4.0%	370,019	10,895	2.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	102.0%	100.8%	120.3%	102.9%
ES	102.0%	101.2%	124.5%	106.9%
DE	101.7%	103.9%	125.8%	140.2%
FR	103.2%	100.8%	139.6%	120.4%
UK	105.2%	101.5%	171.7%	122.8%
US	104.8%	102.1%	158.6%	136.8%