COVID-19 11th April 2020

Summary

US, as predicted yesterday, has now exceeded 500,000 cases at 502,876 and continues to see over 30,000 new cases per day with 33,752 which is the 2nd highest number from the peak of 34,196 on 4 Apr. Only on one day since the peak have new cases been lower than 30,000.  The death rate in US has been low in relation to total cases of around 3.5% but for the last 4 days new deaths have nearly doubled from around 1,000 to 2,000 per day.  Their number of deaths looks set to exceed Italy's in the next day 18,747 v 18,889.

New York is particularly hardest hit with now 172,358 cases, the next worst hit is New Jersey with less than a third of that figure 54,588.

Spain continues to stabilse around 5,000 (5,051) new cases and deaths declining from peak of 961 to 624 their lowest since 22 Mar (19 days).

Italy new cases stabilise around 4,000 for the 12th day. New cases in Italy peaked 12 days after lock down (9 Mar) of 6,557 on 21 Mar and 32 days since lockdown (20 days after the peak) new cases have not dropped below 3,000 per day.

France continues to be unpredictable with new cases increasing by 2,321 (4,799 v 7,120).

Germany new cases reduced by 1,003 (4,939 v 3,936) and had the lowest number of deaths (129) since 30 Mar.  Germany continues to have significantly less deaths than any of the other major western countries with a death rate of 2.2% all other major EU countries are in double digits. IT 12.8% UK 12.1%, FR 10.6%, ES 10.2%

UK saw the highest number of new cases to date with a staggering increase of 4,337 (4,344 v 8,681) which is double the cases the previous day and 2,778 more than the previous high (5,903) on 5 Apr.  If you discount the 'erratic' reporting from France which has seen 2 'blips' this week, then this is the highest number of cases reported in Europe in one day. In addition UK saw the most deaths to date of 980.  'IF' social distancing is working, and the incubation period is 1-14 days (with an average of 5), then how can such an increase in new cases, 18 days after 'lockdown', be explained? 

Less than 3 weeks into lockdown and the media questions are all around when we will see an end to lockdown measures, but unless these figures start to reduce rapidly, I fear that the lockdown measures will be tightened rather than reduced, as surely those being most exposed to infection are those in 'circulation'.  I suspect that only essential workers will be allowed to carry on.

EU Highest new cases in one day

UK 8,681

ES 8,271

FR 7,788 (11,059/23,060 discounted as probably owing to adjustments)

DE 6,993

IT 6,557

If you recall a few days ago when UK reached 50,000 cases I stated that the next figures to 'watch' were 75,000 and 100,000.  I predicted that if UK was on the same trajectory as Italy, then 3/4 days after UK reached 50,000 it  would reach 75,000 just as Italy had i.e. 21 Mar (53,578) 25 Mar (74,386), well UK on 6 Apr 51,608 and 10 Apr 73,758.  As it looks almost certain that UK is shadowing Italy, then in 4/5 days (14/15 Apr) we will probably see 100,000 cases in UK as IT had 97,689 29 Mar and 101,739 30 Mar.

Comparison with China

Whether or not you believe the figures reported by China, if you look at 'active' cases on 22 Jan 554 reported and they peaked on 17 Feb at 58,016 26 days later and now stand at 1,089 on 10 Apr.
If we look at what has happened in China since the peak in active cases on 17 Feb we see that total cases on 17 Feb 72,436 v total cases 10 Apr 81,593 = 9,157 new cases in 53 days which is an average of 173 new cases per day.  If we take the figures from 1 Mar then that number reduces to an average of 53 new cases per day and 1 Apr it reduces to 36 per day. So what exactly is it that China has done to see such a reduction in new cases?

Here's a comparison with EU countries from 1st 500 (or nearest to) cases

CH 22 Jan 554 - 17 Feb 58,016 - 26 days

DE 5 Mar 528    -  6 Apr 72,865 - 32 days

ES 7 Mar 485    -  10 Apr 86,524 - 34 days

IT   27 Feb 593  -  10 Apr 98,273 - 43 days

UK 12 Mar 562   - 10 Apr  64,456 - 29 days

FR 4 Mar 404    -  10 Apr 86,740 - 37 days

US 8 Mar 504     - 10 Apr 456,818 - 33 days

Germany looks like it's active cases have peaked on 6 Apr and Spain and Italy are showing signs of the curve flattening, but France, US and UK are showing no firm signs that the curve is flattening yet.

Of all EU countries Germany appears to be the one that has got this pandemic under control with far fewer deaths and the earliest sign that new and active cases are declining.

Perhaps the other countries need to learn from the actions of China and Germany.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 10 Apr	New Cases 9 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 10 Apr	Deaths 9 Apr	Death Increase
IT	3,951	4,204	-253	570	610	-40
ES	5,051	5,002	49	634	655	-21
DE	3,936	4,939	-1,003	129	258	-129
FR	7,120	4,799	2,321	987	1341	-354
UK	8,681	4,344	4,337	980	881	99
US	33,752	33,536	216	2,056	1903	153

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	10-Apr				09-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,951	147,577	18,849	12.8%	143,626	18,279	12.7%
ES	5,051	158,273	16,081	10.2%	153,222	15,447	10.1%
DE	3,936	122,171	2,736	2.2%	118,235	2,607	2.2%
FR	7,120	124,869	13,197	10.6%	117,749	12,210	10.4%
UK	8,681	73,758	8,958	12.1%	65,077	7,978	12.3%
US	33,752	502,876	18,747	3.7%	468,566	16,691	3.6%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	10-Apr				03-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,951	147,577	18,849	12.8%	119,827	14,681	12.3%
ES	5,051	158,273	16,081	10.2%	119,199	11,198	9.4%
DE	3,936	122,171	2,736	2.2%	91,159	1,275	1.4%
FR	7,120	124,869	13,197	10.6%	82,165	6,507	7.9%
UK	8,681	73,758	8,958	12.1%	38,168	3,605	9.4%
US	33,752	502,876	18,747	3.7%	279,183	7,139	2.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	102.8%	100.4%	123.2%	104.2%
ES	103.3%	100.8%	132.8%	108.2%
DE	103.3%	101.6%	134.0%	160.1%
FR	106.0%	101.9%	152.0%	133.5%
UK	113.3%	99.1%	193.2%	128.6%
US	107.3%	104.7%	180.1%	145.8%