COVID-19 10th April 2020

Summary

US new cases up 1,601 from yesterday and it looks likely total cases will be around 500,000 tomorrow at current rates.  New York has now the most cases worldwide at 161,504.

Spain had lowest number of new cases (5,002) since peak on 26 Mar 8,271.

Italy continues to have fewer new cases (4,204) since peak 6,557 21 Mar, but new cases have increased for the last 2 days since the low of 3,039 7 Apr.

Like Italy, Germany continues to have fewer cases since the peak 6.933 26 Mar but new cases have been higher than the low of 6 Apr 3,252 for the last 3 days.

France new cases up 918 and deaths up 800 to 1,344 the 3rd highest to date and the 5th time deaths have exceeded 1,000 in a day in France. No other EU country has reported more than 1,000 deaths in a day, even at its worst Italy only reported 919 deaths in a day, UK 938, Spain 961, Germany 333.

UK new cases down 1,147 from yesterday but still UK's 4th highest number. Reported deaths (881) are 2nd highest after yesterday's high of 938.

I think what the latest figures are showing is that even though it would appear that Italy, Spain and Germany all peaked 2 to 3 weeks ago, and new cases are lower, they are still experiencing 4,000-5,000 new cases per day.  France, UK and US 'may' have peaked in the last week (still to be confirmed), but we should expect to continue to see a consistent number of new cases for a few more weeks.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 9 Apr	New Cases 8 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 9 Apr	Deaths 8 Apr	Death Increase
IT	4,204	3,836	368	610	542	68
ES	5,002	6,278	-1,276	655	747	-92
DE	4,939	5,633	-694	258	333	-75
FR	4,799	3,881	918	1,341	541	800
UK	4,344	5,491	-1,147	881	938	-57
US	33,536	31,935	1,601	1,903	1947	-44

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	09-Apr				08-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,204	143,626	18,279	12.7%	139,422	17,669	12.7%
ES	5,002	153,222	15,447	10.1%	148,220	14,792	10.0%
DE	4,939	118,235	2,607	2.2%	113,296	2,349	2.1%
FR	4,799	117,749	12,210	10.4%	112,950	10,869	9.6%
UK	4,344	65,077	7,978	12.3%	60,733	7,097	11.7%
US	33,536	468,566	16,691	3.6%	434,927	14,788	3.4%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	09-Apr				02-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,204	143,626	18,279	12.7%	115,242	13,914	12.1%
ES	5,002	153,222	15,447	10.1%	112,065	10,348	9.2%
DE	4,939	118,235	2,607	2.2%	84,794	1,107	1.3%
FR	4,799	117,749	12,210	10.4%	59,105	5,387	9.1%
UK	4,344	65,077	7,978	12.3%	33,718	2,921	8.7%
US	33,536	468,566	16,691	3.6%	246,515	6,081	2.5%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	103.0%	100.4%	124.6%	105.4%
ES	103.4%	101.0%	136.7%	109.2%
DE	104.4%	106.3%	139.4%	168.9%
FR	104.2%	107.8%	199.2%	113.8%
UK	107.2%	104.9%	193.0%	141.5%
US	107.7%	104.8%	190.1%	144.4%