As predicted yesterday Italy now has over 100,000 cases and Spain has now more cases than China and within a few days it is likely that Germany will exceed the cases in China.
The great news is that it is 9 days now (21st March) since Italy saw its peak and new cases seem to be on the decline.
Germany's death rate continues to defy the trend in other countries. I can't understand why the media has not focussed more on this.
I heard a remark on TV this morning that the reason Germany's death rate is so low is that they are testing people at less risk. The figures speak for themselves 66,885 cases (i.e people who have tested positive and are infected) and 645 deaths equates to 1% death rate so I couldn't quite comprehend what he was saying so have looked further into it.
It is suggested that because Germany (and Austria) are testing far more people there are far more testing positive in the less high risk age group (under 60), hence less deaths. If you look at it the other way (especially in UK) only those with symptoms severe enough to present to the health service are tested. Younger people with less severe symptoms who are recovering are not presenting to the health service are not recorded as they perhaps would be in Germany as testing is more wide spread.
You should not be too alarmed at the death rate as the numbers are skewed because the death rate is of those presenting with severe symptoms and not on the population as a whole that have had less severe symptoms.
The main theory as to why Italy has seen so many deaths is the aging population so I thought I'd check the average age for each country to see if Germany had a much younger population and as you can see from the list they sit firmly between Italy and France and Germany in fact has the 4th oldest population in the world after Japan, Italy and Martinique.
Country / Average Age / World Rank (source Worldometers)
JP 48.4 1st
IT 47.3 2nd
DE 45.7 4th
ES 44.9 7th
FR 42.3 28th
UK 40.5 45th
CH 38.4 53rd
US 38.3 54th
Another interesting statistic is that the UK is the most densely populated of the 5 major European countries with also the highest urban percentage - so you would 'think' that spread 'could' be potentially higher.
Country / population per square mile / urban percentage.
UK 727 83.2%
DE 623 76.3%
IT 523 69.5%
FR 300 81.5%
ES 243 80.3%
Table shows latest new cases/deaths compared with previous day:
Country |
New Cases
30 Mar
|
New Cases
29 Mar
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
30 Mar
|
Deaths
29 Mar
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 4,050 | 5,217 | -1,167 | 812 | 756 | -56 |
ES | 7,486 | 6,803 | 683 | 913 | 821 | -92 |
DE | 4,450 | 4,740 | -290 | 104 | 108 | 4 |
FR | 4,376 | 2,599 | 1,777 | 418 | 292 | -126 |
UK | 2,619 | 2,433 | 186 | 180 | 209 | 29 |
US | 20,353 | 18,822 | 1,531 | 672 | 263 | -409 |
Table shows latest figures compared to previous day's figures
Daily | 30-Mar | 29 Mar (-1 Day) | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 4,050 | 101,739 | 11,591 | 11.4% | 97,689 | 10,779 | 11.0% |
ES | 7,874 | 87,596 | 7,716 | 8.8% | 80,110 | 6,803 | 8.5% |
DE | 4,450 | 66,885 | 645 | 1.0% | 62,435 | 541 | 0.9% |
FR | 4,376 | 44,550 | 3,024 | 6.8% | 40,174 | 2,606 | 6.5% |
UK | 2,619 | 22,141 | 1,408 | 6.4% | 19,522 | 1,228 | 6.3% |
US | 20,353 | 163,884 | 3,156 | 1.9% | 142,460 | 2,484 | 1.7% |
Table shows latest figures compared to previous weeks's figures
Weekly | 30-Mar | 23 Mar (-1 Week) | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 4,050 | 101,739 | 11,591 | 11.4% | 63,927 | 6,077 | 9.5% |
ES | 7,874 | 87,596 | 7,716 | 8.8% | 35,136 | 2311 | 6.6% |
DE | 4,450 | 66,885 | 645 | 1.0% | 29,056 | 123 | 0.4% |
FR | 4,376 | 44,550 | 3,024 | 6.8% | 19,856 | 860 | 4.3% |
UK | 2,619 | 22,141 | 1,408 | 6.4% | 6,650 | 335 | 5.0% |
US | 20,353 | 163,884 | 3,156 | 1.9% | 43,781 | 555 | 1.3% |
Table shows Daily/Weekly increase in percentages
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 104.1% | 103.3% | 159.1% | 119.8% |
ES | 109.3% | 103.7% | 249.3% | 133.9% |
DE | 107.1% | 111.3% | 230.2% | 227.8% |
FR | 110.9% | 104.6% | 224.4% | 156.7% |
UK | 113.4% | 101.1% | 332.9% | 126.2% |
US | 115.0% | 110.4% | 374.3% | 151.9% |
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