Tuesday, 31 March 2020

COVID-19 31st March 2020


As predicted yesterday Italy now has over 100,000 cases and Spain has now more cases than China and within a few days it is likely that Germany will exceed the cases in China.

The great news is that it is 9 days now (21st March) since Italy saw its peak and new cases seem to be on the decline.

Germany's death rate continues to defy the trend in other countries.  I can't understand why the media has not focussed more on this.

I heard a remark on TV this morning that the reason Germany's death rate is so low is that they are testing people at less risk.  The figures speak for themselves 66,885 cases (i.e people who have tested positive and are infected) and 645 deaths equates to 1% death rate so I couldn't quite comprehend what he was saying so have looked further into it.

It is suggested that because Germany (and Austria) are testing far more people there are far more testing positive in the less high risk age group (under 60), hence less deaths.  If you look at it the other way (especially in UK) only those with symptoms severe enough to present to the health service are tested. Younger people with less severe symptoms who are recovering are not presenting to the health service are not recorded as they perhaps would be in Germany as testing is more wide spread. 

You should not be too alarmed at the death rate as the numbers are skewed because the death rate is of those presenting with severe symptoms and not on the population as a whole that have had less severe symptoms.

The main theory as to why Italy has seen so many deaths is the aging population so I thought I'd check the average age for each country to see if Germany had a much younger population and as you can see from the list they sit firmly between Italy and France and Germany in fact has the 4th oldest population in the world after Japan, Italy and Martinique.

Country / Average Age / World Rank (source Worldometers)
JP 48.4 1st
IT 47.3 2nd
DE 45.7 4th
ES 44.9 7th
FR 42.3 28th
UK 40.5 45th
CH 38.4 53rd
US 38.3 54th

Another interesting statistic is that the UK is the most densely populated of the 5 major European countries with also the highest urban percentage - so you would 'think' that spread 'could' be potentially higher.

Country / population per square mile / urban percentage.
UK 727 83.2%
DE 623 76.3%
IT 523 69.5%
FR 300 81.5%
ES 243 80.3%

Table shows latest new cases/deaths  compared with previous day:
Country
New Cases

30 Mar
New Cases

29 Mar
New Case Increase

Deaths
30 Mar

Deaths
29 Mar

Death
Increase
IT 4,050 5,217 -1,167 812 756 -56
ES 7,486 6,803 683 913 821 -92
DE 4,450 4,740 -290 104 108 4
FR 4,376 2,599 1,777 418 292 -126
UK 2,619 2,433 186 180 209 29
US 20,353 18,822 1,531 672 263 -409
Table shows latest figures compared to previous day's figures

Daily 30-Mar 29 Mar (-1 Day)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,050 101,739 11,591 11.4% 97,689 10,779 11.0%
ES 7,874 87,596 7,716 8.8% 80,110 6,803 8.5%
DE 4,450 66,885 645 1.0% 62,435 541 0.9%
FR 4,376 44,550 3,024 6.8% 40,174 2,606 6.5%
UK 2,619 22,141 1,408 6.4% 19,522 1,228 6.3%
US 20,353 163,884 3,156 1.9% 142,460 2,484 1.7%
Table shows latest figures compared to previous weeks's figures

Weekly 30-Mar 23 Mar (-1 Week)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total

Cases
No.

Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,050 101,739 11,591 11.4% 63,927 6,077 9.5%
ES 7,874 87,596 7,716 8.8% 35,136 2311 6.6%
DE 4,450 66,885 645 1.0% 29,056 123 0.4%
FR 4,376 44,550 3,024 6.8% 19,856 860 4.3%
UK 2,619 22,141 1,408 6.4% 6,650 335 5.0%
US 20,353 163,884 3,156 1.9% 43,781 555 1.3%
Table shows Daily/Weekly increase in percentages

Daily Weekly
Country
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
IT 104.1% 103.3% 159.1% 119.8%
ES 109.3% 103.7% 249.3% 133.9%
DE 107.1% 111.3% 230.2% 227.8%
FR 110.9% 104.6% 224.4% 156.7%
UK 113.4% 101.1% 332.9% 126.2%
US 115.0% 110.4% 374.3% 151.9%

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