COVID-19 30th March 2020

For the very first time new cases in all countries are less than the previous day. 

The good news is that Italy now looks as if it may have peaked and that the signs of the effect of lockdown are now starting to be seen.  New cases hit a peak of 6,557 on 21st Mar and have been consistently lower for the last 8 days.

Spain peaked on 26th Mar with 8,271 and have now been lower for the last 3 days.

Germany peaked on 27th 6,933 and have been lower for the last 2 days.

France seemed to be stabilising after 23rd at 3,838 but spiked on 28th to 4,611.

UK peaked on 27th 2,885 but has seen new cases decline for the last 2 days.

US peaked 28th at 19,452 but is down to 18,882.

However, I believe that UK is 2 weeks behind the curve and US about 3 weeks behind so won't be surprised if we see these figures continue to rise before they flatten out and decline.

At current rates by end of today it looks like Italy will be over 100,00 cases and Spain will have more cases than China, as most likely will Germany before the end of the week.  The US has reported almost 110,00 cases in the last week alone. It makes me wonder how accurate the 'reported' China figures are .. or should the west learn from what China has done to contain it?

Latest stats from Worldometers.

The table below shows the daily increase/decrease in news cases and new deaths.

Country	New Cases 29 Mar	New Cases 28 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 29 Mar	Deaths 28 Mar	Death Increase
IT	5,217	5,874	-657	756	889	133
ES	6,803	7,516	-713	821	844	23
DE	4,740	6,824	-2,084	108	82	-26
FR	2,599	4,611	-2,012	292	319	27
UK	2,433	2,546	-113	209	260	51
US	18,822	19,452	-630	263	525	262

Table below shows total cases and total deaths for the last 2 days.

Daily	29-Mar				28 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,217	97,689	10,779	11.0%	92,472	10,023	10.8%
ES	6,803	80,110	6,803	8.5%	73,235	5,982	8.2%
DE	4,740	62,435	541	0.9%	57,695	433	0.8%
FR	2,599	40,174	2,606	6.5%	37,575	2,314	6.2%
UK	2,433	19,522	1,228	6.3%	17,089	1,019	6.0%
US	18,822	142,460	2,484	1.7%	123,578	2,221	1.8%

Table below shows total cases and total deaths for the latest day and one week ago.

Weekly	29-Mar				22 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,217	97,689	10,779	11.0%	59,138	5,476	9.3%
ES	6,803	80,110	6,803	8.5%	28,768	1772	6.2%
DE	4,740	62,435	541	0.9%	24,873	94	0.4%
FR	2,599	40,174	2,606	6.5%	16,018	674	4.2%
UK	2,433	19,522	1,228	6.3%	5,683	281	4.9%
US	18,822	142,460	2,484	1.7%	33,592	414	1.2%

The table below shows the Daily and Weekly increase cases/deaths.

US cases are more than quadrupling in a week and UK increasing by almost 3.5 times.

Germany has seen the highest increase in death rate but is still a long way behind every other country with their death rate less than 1% and Italy's at an alarming 11% now.

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	105.6%	101.8%	165.2%	119.2%
ES	109.4%	104.0%	278.5%	137.9%
DE	108.2%	115.5%	251.0%	229.3%
FR	106.9%	105.3%	250.8%	154.2%
UK	114.2%	105.5%	343.5%	127.2%
US	115.3%	97.0%	424.1%	141.5%