COVID-19 28th March 2020

To reiterate what I posted in an update yesterday evening:

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock have tested positive for COVID-19 and the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty is self-isolating after showing symptoms.  Some are critcising them for not practising what they preached ... but imagine the amount of stress they are under and stress severely impacts the immune system.

I have added a new table comparing latest figure against previous day's figures to show rate of growth.

Summary

Both US and Italy now have more cases than China.  The growth in the US is quite alarming given that US is approx 3 weeks behind the Italian trajectory. US has grown from under 20,000 cases to over 100,000 in a week - more cases than total in China in just one week alone.

Italy, Spain and France all had slightly lower cases than previous day.  Hopefully, they are all now reaching their peak and perhaps signs than cases will start to decline.

STOP PRESS Reports from BBC state that large number of new deaths in Spain overnight - 832 and now are 5,690 v 5,138 reported at midnight, and total cases are now 72,248 v 65,719 at midnight.

Germany is slightly behind the curve and their numbers increased a little.

UK and US are at least 2/3 weeks behind the curve and their numbers are growing and I suspect will continue to grow for a few more weeks until the peak is reached.  As I have been projecting for a while now UK is exactly where Italy was on 13th March (IT 14,955 - UK 14,543).

Daily Change in Cases/Deaths

Table below shows the daily increase in new cases and new deaths by country.

i.e difference between latest figures v previous days figures to show whether numbers are increasing or decreasing.

Country	New Cases 26 Mar	New Cases 27 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 26 Mar	Deaths 27 Mar	Death Increase
IT	6,203	5,909	-294	712	919	207
ES	8,271	7,933	-338	718	773	55
DE	6,625	6,933	368	61	84	23
FR	3,922	3,809	-113	365	299	-66
UK	2,129	2,885	756	113	181	68
US	17,224	18,691	1,467	268	401	133

Daily Change 

Table below shows latest actual figures v previous day's actual figures

27/03/2020
Daily	27-Mar				26 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,909	86,498	9,134	10.6%	80,589	8,215	10.2%
ES	7,933	65,719	5,138	7.8%	57,786	4,365	7.6%
DE	6,993	50,871	351	0.7%	43,938	267	0.6%
FR	3,809	32,964	1,995	6.1%	29,155	1,696	5.8%
UK	2,885	14,543	759	5.2%	11,658	578	5.0%
US	18,691	104,126	1,696	1.6%	85,435	1,295	1.5%

Weekly Change

Table shows actual latest figures v actual figures one week ago.

Weekly	27-Mar				20 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,909	86,498	9,134	10.6%	47,021	4,032	8.6%
ES	7,933	65,719	5,138	7.8%	18,077	1093	6.0%
DE	6,993	50,871	351	0.7%	19,848	68	0.3%
FR	3,809	32,964	1,995	6.1%	12,612	450	3.6%
UK	2,885	14,543	759	5.2%	3,983	177	4.4%
US	18,691	104,126	1,696	1.6%	19,367	255	1.3%

Daily/Weekly increase inCase/Death Factor

Table shows the rate of increase as a percentage for actual latest figure v previous day's figures and figures one week ago

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	107.3%	103.6%	184.0%	123.1%
ES	113.7%	103.5%	363.6%	129.3%
DE	115.8%	113.5%	256.3%	201.4%
FR	113.1%	104.0%	261.4%	169.6%
UK	124.7%	105.3%	365.1%	117.4%
US	121.9%	107.5%	537.6%	123.7%