COVID-19 23rd March 2020

For the last 2 days we have seen new cases in Italy decline.  Let's hope that this is a sign that after 2 weeks of lockdown new infections are reducing.  However in Spain and France new cases have doubled (ES 3,272 - 6,368, FR 1,559 - 3,838) and Germany increased by 67% (DE 2,509 - 4,183) and in UK increased by nearly 50% (UK 665 - 967).

As predicted yesterday the UK government has now told everyone except for essential workers to stay at home except under strict conditions.

The UK is exactly where Italy was when they locked down on 8th March i.e. IT 6,387 cases and 366 deaths UK 6,650 cases and 335 deaths.

For anyone in any doubt about how serious this is and that the rest of Europe is following Italy take a look at this graph produced by John Burn-Murdoch of The Financial Times.

Click to enlarge

For those who think this is 'just the flu' be aware that this virus is far more contagious than the flu. The R0 factor (basic reproduction number) for flu is 1.3, current estimates for COVID-19 is 2 to 3. That means for every person infected they can infect 2 to 3 others who in turn can infect 2 to 3 others etc.

REALITY CHECK even with the low end number of 2, after only 5 cycles that one person could have been the seed for 65,536 cases (2; 4; 16; 256; 65,536; 4,294,967,296).  If each of the 65,536 infect 2 more people each then the number is a staggering 4.3 million!  The numbers after that don't even bare thinking about.  Of course things are quite as linear as that but it shows the impact if we don't socially distance.

Source Rachael Rettner Live Science - Viral Transmission

Daily	23-Mar				22 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,789	63,927	6,077	9.5%	59,138	5,476	9.3%
ES	6,368	35,136	2,311	6.6%	28,768	1,772	6.2%
DE	4,183	29,056	123	0.4%	24,873	94	0.4%
FR	3,838	19,856	860	4.3%	16,018	674	4.2%
UK	967	6,650	335	5.0%	5,683	281	4.9%

Weekly	23-Mar				16 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,789	63,927	6,077	9.5%	27,980	2,158	7.7%
ES	6,368	35,136	2,311	6.6%	9,942	342	3.4%
DE	4,183	29,056	123	0.4%	7,272	17	0.2%
FR	3,838	19,856	860	4.3%	6,633	148	2.2%
UK	967	6,650	335	5.0%	1,543	55	3.6%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	108.1%	102.7%	228.5%	123.3%
ES	122.1%	106.8%	353.4%	191.2%
DE	116.8%	112.0%	399.6%	181.1%
FR	124.0%	102.9%	299.4%	194.1%
UK	117.0%	101.9%	431.0%	141.3%

Source Worldometers