COVID-19 21st March 2020

Today's stats show no sign of the number of infections subsiding in Europe apart from in Germany.  The UK had its highest number of reported cases to date by a big margin 1,035 v 714 and Italy's daily cases continue to increase by around 500 on the previous day as do Spain's, yet Germany's almost halved from 4,528 yesterday to 2,516  whilst France's remain stable around 1,800.

Daily	21-Mar				20 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	6,557	53,578	4,825	9.0%	47,021	4,032	8.6%
ES	3,925	25,496	1,381	5.4%	21,571	1,093	5.1%
DE	2,517	22,364	84	0.4%	19,838	68	0.3%
FR	1,847	14,459	562	3.9%	12,612	450	3.6%
UK	1,035	5,018	233	4.6%	3,983	177	4.4%

Weekly	21-Mar				14 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	6,557	53,578	4,825	9.0%	21,157	1,441	6.8%
ES	3,925	25,496	1,381	5.4%	6,391	196	3.1%
DE	2,517	22,364	84	0.4%	4,599	9	0.2%
FR	1,847	14,459	562	3.9%	4,499	91	2.0%
UK	1,035	5,018	233	4.6%	1,140	21	1.8%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	113.9%	105.0%	253.2%	132.2%
ES	118.2%	106.9%	398.9%	176.6%
DE	112.7%	109.6%	486.3%	191.9%
FR	114.6%	108.9%	321.4%	192.2%
UK	126.0%	104.5%	440.2%	252.1%

The most concerning stat is that whilst the UK has the fewest no. of cases (so far), the death rate (4.6%) is not far behind Spain (5.4%) who have 5 time more infections.  Again Germany is bucking the trend with reducing infections and a far lower death rate (0.4%).  

It would be interesting to find out what the difference is in Germany, is it a younger population being infected, have they got more intensive care facilities meaning lives are being saved?  They have almost the same number of cases as Spain with less that 10% the death rate of Spain.

From initial investigations it would seem that Germany has been testing people since early January and are adhering to WHO's mantra of 'Test, Test, Test'.  Is this the key?

Sadly I see no signs that the UK will not follow the same course as Italy.  Pubs and clubs, etc. have been ordered to close so we shall see in a weeks time whether this has any impact on reducing the no. of cases.  It is almost 2 weeks (9th March) since there was a complete lockdown in Italy yet cases continue to rise - 9,172 on 9th and now 53,578 (a 584% increase)

Recent reports  are stating the the NHS is bracing itself in the quiet before the storm.  It is a disgrace that many NHS staff are reporting that they do not have sufficient or the correct personal protection equipment (PPE) yet we are putting NHS staff (and their families) in danger at the front end without adequate equipment.

When this is all over I am sure there will be a outcry from the British public to fund the NHS and social care properly.  It is very sad that it may have taken this pandemic to show show how critical he NHS is.