COVID-19 21st March 2020

New cases continue to rise in Italy. From thinking they were stabilising around 3,000-3,500 new cases per day a few days ago with the hope that new cases would start to decline, they have almost doubled again as yesterday there were 5,986 new cases reported.  This is even more concerning when you consider it is now a week since the whole country was locked down.  Does this mean the virus is spreading even under lockdown conditions? Or were these people infected before the lockdown and symptoms are now only just surfacing?  If lockdown IS working we should expect to see the number of new cases reducing soon.

The table below compares the latest figures with a/ previous day and b/ previous week.
Source Worldometers

Daily	20-Mar				19 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,986	47,021	4,032	8.6%	41,035	3,405	8.3%
ES	3,494	21,571	1,093	5.1%	18,077	831	4.6%
DE	4,528	19,838	68	0.3%	15,320	44	0.3%
FR	1,617	12,612	450	3.6%	10,995	372	3.4%
UK	714	3,983	177	4.4%	3,269	144	4.4%

Weekly	20-Mar				13 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,986	47,021	4,032	8.6%	17,660	1,266	7.2%
ES	3,494	21,571	1,093	5.1%	5,232	133	2.5%
DE	4,528	19,838	68	0.3%	3,675	8	0.2%
FR	1,617	12,612	450	3.6%	3,661	79	2.2%
UK	714	3,983	177	4.4%	798	11	1.4%

The table below shows the daily and weekly rates of increase as percentage.

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	114.6%	103.3%	266.3%	119.6%
ES	119.3%	110.2%	412.3%	199.3%
DE	129.5%	119.3%	539.8%	157.5%
FR	114.7%	105.5%	344.5%	165.3%
UK	121.8%	100.9%	499.1%	322.4%

The UK figures have more than doubled twice in a week i.e. 800 x2 = 1,600 x2 = 3,200 and now stand at almost 4,000.  This is where Italy was on 5th March and the rate of increase is a similar rate to that seen in Italy i.e. doubling every 3 days.  If they continue at this rate then we could see over 16,000 cases by this time next week (4 x2 = 8 x2 = 16) which will be around where Spain, German and France are today. If we do see rates around 15,000 -16,000 in a week's time then we must assume that UK is following the same trajectory as Italy as on 5th March Italy had 3,838 cases and 12th March 15,113 cases.

The UK government announced the closure of pubs, clubs, restaurants and theatres last night commencing today. Anyone with any common sense will have not been near these for some time but let's hope that this is not too late to curb the outbreak.

The only way to stop the spreading of this virus is for individuals to take personal responsibility and implement the official advice given i.e. wash hands regularly, social distancing and self-isolate where appropriate.

Please stay safe and do your bit!