COVID-19 20th March 2020

I stated yesterday that the number of deaths in Italy was only 245 fewer than China's with less than half of the number of cases, well sadly today Italy's death rate has risen above that of China, and the new cases of 5,322 has now brought the total number of cases in Italy to just over half of China's. 80,967 vs 41,035.

The table below compares yesterdays figures to what they were a week ago on 12th March (the 3 columns on right).

Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,322	41,035	3,405	8.3%	15,113	1,016	6.7%
ES	3,308	18,077	831	4.6%	3,146	86	2.7%
DE	2,993	15,320	44	0.3%	2,745	6	0.2%
FR	1,861	10,995	372	3.4%	2,876	61	2.1%
UK	643	3,269	144	4.4%	590	10	1.7%

This table shows the rate of increase of total cases and total deaths in the last week.  Spain, Germany & UK have all seen cases rise by over 500%, with the UK's death rate rising the most by just under 260%.  (Note this is based on the percentage of deaths per total cases not on increase of number of deaths. e.g. 4.4% / 1.7% NOT 144/10)

Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate Increase Factor
IT	271.52%	123.43%
ES	574.60%	168.16%
DE	558.11%	131.40%
FR	382.30%	159.52%
UK	554.07%	259.90%

Source: Worldometers

The UK sees more panic buying and the publication of a video from a critical care nurse who had just come off shift in tears and angry because whe was not able to buy what she needed from a supermarket for the next 48 hours because shelves were empty.  There is absoluetly no need for this panic buying - we NEED our NHS staff to be fit and healthy to care for the sick. WILL PEOPLE PLEASE STOP PANIC BUYNG.  It is ridiculous. The worst hit country in Europe isn't even panic buying so why on earth do people in UK feel the necessity to do it!  There is enough to go around if everyone just bought their fair share!