COVID-19 29th March 2020

Here are the latest stas I've tabulated for Worldometers.

Sadly as I predicted on 21st March (BEFORE the UK lockdown) cases have doubled every 3 days.  I predicted that 4,000 x 2 =  8,000 x 2 = 16,000 and that we would see over 16,000 cases in 7 days.

IT  5th Mar 3,858 cases - 7 days later on 12th Mar  rose to 15,113 cases.

UK 20th Mar 3,983 cases - 7 days later on 27th rose to 14,543 cases.

IT 13th Mar 17,660 cases - UK 28th Mar 17,089 cases

I gain no satisfaction for 'being right' - to be honest I had hoped that I'd be proved wrong, but the BIG question I have is ... if I could predict it just from the daily figures being published then why did the so-called experts that are advising the UK government not predict it and advise the government to shut down earlier.  Perhaps they did and the advice was ignored?

I think it is almost inevitable now that we will see the same number of cases and deaths in the UK as seen in Italy.  The effect of the UK lockdown will not be seen for at least another 2 weeks before new cases start declining.  The genie is already out of the bottle. The UK had at least 2/3 weeks 'knowledge' of what was happening in Italy and chose to do nothing.  India with a population of 1.3bn has taken absolutely no chances and have shut down the country with a mere 500 cases.

The cases in Germany are more than triple that of the UK with less than half the death rate.  Why is this, it's because Germany are testing and contact tracing and isolating cases early.  Whilst the testing in UK should be higher it is too late now.  Only NHS staff and those showing symptoms should be tested as there is no point testing everyone as if you are not positive today doesn't mean you won't be positive tomorrow or the next day etc., so what do we do test everyone everyday?  The anti-body test would be better as it will test those already infected and recovered and therefore less risk, although we don't know for sure that they cannot become reinfected, but if they survived it once then presumably they 'should' survive it again, but of course they could still be spreading it if they do get reinfected.

This is a global pandemic, the virus doesn't recognise country borders or who you are (the 3 most senior people in UK fighting the epidemic are themselves all infected). So what does president Trump do? - after already banning the majority of international flights to US, send troops to guard the Mexican and Canadian borders and threatens to isolate New York, New Jersey & Connecticut but then renages.  If you want another prediction - I think he has blown any chance of re-election later this year, he was cruising on the economy (now tanked as Dow fell 39% from 29,500 to 18,500 before $2Tr package released), and his action and statements on COVID-19 show how inept he is.  Claiming that it will all be over by Easter (which is now exactly 2 weeks today) being perhaps his most idiotic statement yet.  Of course what he might try to do is postpone the election (3rd Nov 2020) due to COVID-19 (it that is at all possible) to buy himself some time.  Hopefully the US public now see all he is interested in is money and the economy and not them.  What will he do with all those who have lost their jobs and with it their healthcare package?  Will they be turned away from hospitals because they have no healthcare?

I apologise for having a bit of a rant but it makes me angry that this wasn't taken more seriously.  I commented at the time when China was building a brand new hospital from scratch in January that this was far more serious than people were taking it as why would they go to such extremes of building a new hospital in 10 days if it weren't? On 24th Jan when they started the construction there were only 1,287 cases 'reported' in China, The UK has waited until over 10,000 before converting ExCel center into Nightingale hospital.

Country	New Cases 28 Mar	New Cases 27 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 28 Mar	Deaths 27 Mar	Death Increase
IT	5,874	5,909	-35	889	712	-177
ES	7,516	7,933	-417	844	718	-126
DE	6,824	6,993	-169	82	61	-21
FR	4,611	3,809	802	319	365	46
UK	2,546	2,885	-339	260	113	-147
US	19,452	18,691	761	525	268	-257

Daily 28-Mar 27 Mar (-1 Day) Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% IT 5,874 92,472 10,023 10.8% 86,498 9,134 10.6% ES 7,516 73,235 5,982 8.2% 65,719 5,138 7.8% DE 6,824 57,695 433 0.8% 50,871 351 0.7% FR 4,611 37,575 2,314 6.2% 32,964 1,995 6.1% UK 2,546 17,089 1,019 6.0% 14,543 759 5.2% US 19,452 123,578 2,221 1.8% 104,126 1,696 1.6%

Weekly	287/03/2020				21 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,874	92,472	10,023	10.8%	53,578	4,825	9.0%
ES	7,516	73,235	5,982	8.2%	25,496	1381	5.4%
DE	6,824	57,695	433	0.8%	22,364	84	0.4%
FR	4,611	37,575	2,314	6.2%	14,459	562	3.9%
UK	2,546	17,089	1,019	6.0%	5,018	233	4.6%
US	19,452	123,578	2,221	1.8%	24,192	301	1.2%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	106.9%	102.6%	172.6%	120.4%
ES	111.4%	104.5%	287.2%	150.8%
DE	113.4%	108.8%	258.0%	199.8%
FR	114.0%	101.8%	259.9%	158.4%
UK	117.5%	114.3%	340.6%	128.4%
US	118.7%	110.3%	510.8%	144.4%